The F-35 and KAAN Equation: New Defense Strategy in the Post-Trump Era

The CAATSA Deadlock and the S-400 Barrier

The change of administration in the US deepens the uncertainty surrounding Turkey's suspension from the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter program in 2019 due to the S-400 air defense systems. CAATSA sanctions, initiated during the Trump era, have evolved into a political blockade when combined with the Democratic administration's 'institutional diplomacy' line. The $1.4 billion payment made by Turkey and the exclusion of local industries (Ayesas, Alp Aviation, Kale Aviation) from the supply chain represent a loss of approximately $12 billion in business volume for the defense ecosystem.

KAAN: Indigenous Engine and Mass Production Timeline

The uncertainty in the F-35 program has transformed the National Combat Aircraft (KAAN) project, led by TUSAŞ (TAI), from an 'optional' solution into a 'strategic necessity.' While KAAN's successful maiden flight is a technical victory, three major industrial hurdles remain:

• Engine Dependency: The General Electric F110-GE-129 engines used in current prototypes are subject to US Congressional export licenses. The indigenous turbofan engine developed by TRMotor and TEI is not expected to be ready for mass production before 2028.
• AESA Radar and Avionics: High-budget R&D investments continue for the MURAD AESA radar and integrated electronic warfare systems developed by ASELSAN to meet 5th-generation stealth criteria.
• Economies of Scale: The most significant factor in reducing unit cost is production volume. Turkey needs to bring the unit cost down to the F-35's $80-100 million range through an internal order of at least 150-200 units and potential export markets.

F-16 Block 70: A Temporary Bridge or Long-Term Solution?

The $23 billion F-16 Block 70 and modernization kit deal pursued with the US is seen as a critical 'interim solution' to prevent the aging of the Turkish Air Force fleet. However, this purchase aims to maintain air power parity until KAAN reaches full operational capacity in the 2030s, rather than meeting the 5th-generation requirement. Political analysts predict that Washington will continue to demand concrete terms, such as the 'non-activation' or 'transfer to a third country' of S-400s, keeping the F-35 file in the 'waiting room' for a long time.