CBRT: The high and volatile trend in energy prices continues

The summary of the CBRT Monetary Policy Committee meeting on October 22 has been published.

In the summary, "The high and volatile course of energy prices continues due to ongoing geopolitical uncertainties. The duration and extent of uncertainties regarding energy supply, supply chains and transportation costs will continue to be decisive for the future course of energy prices. On the other hand, a high course of agricultural commodity prices is observed due to adverse weather conditions and geopolitical developments. This situation emerges as another upward risk factor on inflation developments and expectations." statements were included.

In the summary, it was stated that the negative growth outlook for the Middle East and African countries continued for 2026 due to the impact of geopolitical developments, and on the other hand, it was noted that growth rates were expected to recover with the introduction of base effects in 2027.

In the summary, it was stated that within this framework, the weak and fragile outlook will continue on a global scale, and the global growth index, weighted by the export shares of Türkiye's foreign trade partners, is estimated to increase by 1.6 percent for 2026 and 2.5 percent for 2027.

In the summary, which stated that the upside risks on global inflation continue due to the volatility in commodity prices, it was stated that central banks continue to monitor these risks and take into account the negative effects of developments on growth and employment.

In the summary, it was stated that market pricing regarding policy rates indicates that interest rate increase expectations continue in developed countries.

The summary noted that how permanent the supply shock caused by adverse global weather conditions caused by geopolitical developments and climate events such as El Niño will be and to what extent it will disrupt inflation expectations is important for the course of global monetary policies. "Recently, due to increasing uncertainty and fluctuations in risk appetite, fund outflows have been observed from the stock markets of developing countries, while downside risks on portfolio movements remain alive." evaluation was included.

Source: TRT Haber Ekonomi RSS (Open Press / Translated Full Text)