Is Now the Right Time to Buy a Home? Mortgage Rates, the Rent-vs-Installment Gap, and the 2027 Outlook

1. Current Situation and Key Developments

As Turkey's Central Bank enters an easing cycle, mortgage rates have begun a gradual decline. However, as of October 2026, monthly mortgage rates hovering between 2.8–3.2% still constitute a significant access barrier for middle-income families.

Meanwhile, rent increases in major cities continue to outpace CPI. Average 2+1 apartment rents in Istanbul have reached 35,000–45,000 TL per month, reopening the 'pay rent or buy' debate.

2. Background and Structural Causes

During the high-inflation period of 2021–2024, real estate became a primary savings and store-of-value instrument. Despite a moderate slowdown in price growth during 2025–2026, per-square-meter prices in major cities remain near historic highs. Rising construction cost indices and constrained supply suggest that sharp price declines are unlikely.

3. Probable Scenarios and Key Risks

• Accelerated Rate Cuts: Monthly rates falling to 1.8–2.0% by early 2027 could trigger a demand surge, pushing prices higher again—leaving would-be buyers worse off.
• Rent-Installment Parity: Monthly rent in many major-city properties already approaches purchase installment amounts, making buying economically rational.
• Risk: Earthquake and urban renewal uncertainty—particularly in Istanbul—may cause significant value losses in specific districts. Location selection is critical.

4. Dr. Selim Kaya Assessment

A home purchase decision is not purely a mathematical calculation—it is a quality-of-life and freedom choice. While rates are expected to fall below 2% by mid-2027, housing prices will likely continue rising in parallel. For families with sufficient down payments who plan long-term residency in a stable district, acting now may be more prudent than waiting.

Source: Bilginet Analysis Desk Exclusive Report / Dr. Selim Kaya