'It can kill us': Kenyans fear impact of El Niño with floods predicted

In the heart of Nairobi, within the sprawling corrugated iron landscape of Kibera, 62-year-old Agnes Shikoli points to a faded water line halfway up the 1.8-meter wall of her home. "It flooded up to here in March," she says, her voice carrying the weight of a survivor. Her tiny dwelling sits just a few meters from the Ngong River, a waterway that transforms from a sluggish stream into a raging torrent during Kenya's rainy seasons. The physical scars of the long rains earlier this year are everywhere; a broken television sits in the corner, its internal components ruined by immersion. But the deepest scars are not material. Tucked away is a photograph of her sister, Beatrice Khalayi, who was 58 when she became one of the more than 60 victims of the floods that ravaged the country months ago.

The memory of her sister’s death is a haunting reminder of the dangers that come with the rain. "Someone called me to tell me that she had died of electrocution after her house flooded," Shikoli recalls, explaining why she keeps the photo out of sight to avoid the constant sting of grief. Now, as Kenya enters its "short rainy season," the fear has returned with renewed intensity. Forecasters have issued dire warnings that this year’s El Niño could be one of the strongest on record, potentially bringing catastrophic flooding to a region already struggling to recover. For Shikoli, the threat is existential. "I feel like it can kill us. These houses aren't made of stone," she tells the BBC. "They can fall on us, or the water can drown us."

Background of the Development

Kenya’s climate is characterized by two distinct rainy seasons: the "long rains" from March to May and the "short rains" from October to December. Historically, these patterns provided the necessary water for the country’s agriculture-dependent economy. However, in recent years, the predictability of these seasons has vanished, replaced by extreme weather events driven by global climate shifts. The floods in early 2024 were particularly brutal, catching many off guard and exposing the severe limitations of Nairobi’s urban infrastructure. In Kibera, where over 250,000 people live in high-density informal housing, the lack of planned drainage means that even moderate rainfall can lead to localized disasters.

The Ngong River, which snakes through Kibera, serves as a grim focal point for these disasters. Over decades, the riverbed has been narrowed by encroachment and choked with uncollected waste, significantly reducing its capacity to carry runoff. When the rains hit, the river bursts its banks almost instantly, sending water into the homes of those living on the margins. The death of Beatrice Khalayi by electrocution highlights a specific hazard of urban slums: the proliferation of illegal and exposed electrical wiring. When floodwaters rise, these settlements become electrified death traps, turning a natural disaster into a preventable man-made tragedy.

The current alarm is centered on El Niño, a climate pattern originating in the Pacific Ocean that involves the warming of sea surface temperatures. For East Africa, El Niño typically translates to significantly higher-than-average rainfall. The last major El Niño events led to widespread crop failure, the destruction of bridges, and the displacement of tens of thousands of people. With meteorologists warning that the 2024-2025 cycle could reach historic levels of intensity, the vulnerability of informal settlements like Kibera has become a primary concern for humanitarian agencies and the Kenyan government alike.

Expert and Industry Insights

Meteorological experts and urban planners warn that the combination of El Niño and poor urban management creates a "perfect storm" for disaster. They emphasize that the risks in informal settlements are multifaceted, ranging from immediate physical danger to long-term health crises. According to technical assessments, the structural integrity of most buildings in Kibera is insufficient to withstand the hydraulic pressure of sustained flooding or the erosion of the soil they sit upon. Industry experts also point to the critical failure of the waste management sector, which contributes to the clogging of what little drainage exists.

• Structural Vulnerability: Most houses are built from mud and corrugated iron without foundations, making them prone to collapse during heavy rains.
• Electrocution Hazards: The prevalence of "kamua" (illegal power connections) creates a high risk of fatal shocks when water enters homes.
• Waterborne Diseases: Flooding often causes pit latrines to overflow, contaminating the limited clean water supply and leading to outbreaks of cholera and typhoid.
• Emergency Response Gaps: The narrow, unpaved alleys of Kibera make it nearly impossible for emergency services to reach victims during a flood.
• Infrastructure Blockages: Solid waste accumulation in the Ngong River prevents natural drainage, exacerbating the height and speed of floodwaters.

Experts argue that the government’s response must move beyond mere warnings. There is an urgent need for the pre-positioning of emergency supplies and the identification of safe evacuation centers. Furthermore, climate scientists suggest that the increasing frequency of these events requires a fundamental shift in how Nairobi manages its waterways. The "strongest on record" label attached to this year's El Niño serves as a call to action for regional authorities to implement more robust climate adaptation strategies before the peak of the rainy season arrives in late November.

Economic and Social Implications

The economic impact of flooding on Kenya’s poorest citizens is devastating and cyclical. For residents like Agnes Shikoli, the loss of a television or basic furniture represents a significant portion of their net worth. In informal economies, where many live hand-to-mouth, the destruction of household assets forces families into a spiral of debt or extreme deprivation. The cost of replacing basic necessities often comes at the expense of food, healthcare, or school fees, further entrenching the cycle of poverty that defines life in the slums.

Socially, the constant threat of disaster breeds a sense of chronic instability and psychological trauma. The loss of life, such as that of Beatrice Khalayi, leaves behind grieving families who must continue to live in the very environment that claimed their loved ones. This creates a pervasive atmosphere of fear that affects community cohesion and mental health. Children are particularly vulnerable, as floods often disrupt schooling and expose them to hazardous conditions. The social fabric of Kibera is resilient, but the repeated battering by extreme weather events tests the limits of that resilience every year.

On a broader scale, the economic repercussions extend to the national level. When the "short rains" turn into a national flood crisis, the government is forced to divert funds from development projects to emergency relief. Damage to transport infrastructure can disrupt the supply chain for essential goods, leading to inflation in food prices. For the residents of Kibera, who already spend a disproportionate amount of their income on food, any increase in the price of staples like maize flour can lead to widespread hunger, compounding the misery caused by the water itself.

Future Projections and Outlook

The outlook for the coming months is fraught with uncertainty. While the Kenyan government has announced various mitigation plans, the efficacy of these measures remains to be seen on the ground in places like Kibera. The official timeline for the El Niño-enhanced rains suggests that the most intense period will occur between October and December, with the potential for lingering effects into early 2025. The primary challenge will be the management of the Ngong River and the protection of those living in its immediate vicinity.

Looking further ahead, the reality of climate change means that El Niño events will likely become more volatile. This necessitates a long-term strategy for urban renewal and the formalization of housing in Nairobi. Projections suggest that without significant investment in climate-resilient infrastructure, the death toll and economic losses from flooding will continue to rise. There is a growing consensus among international observers that the relocation of residents from high-risk riparian zones is necessary, though such moves are often politically and socially complex.

For now, the focus remains on the immediate survival of residents like Agnes Shikoli. The international community and local NGOs are monitoring the situation closely, ready to deploy aid if the predicted "strongest on record" El Niño manifests its full power. The hope is that early warnings will lead to early action, preventing a repeat of the tragedies seen in March. However, for the people of Kibera, the sound of rain on a corrugated iron roof remains not a blessing for the crops, but a terrifying signal of a potential fight for their lives.