Neither war nor peace in Tigray - is Ethiopia's latest conflict really over?

For Firut Me'ar, who runs a hair salon in Mekelle, the capital of Ethiopia's troubled northern Tigray region, life has become an impossible struggle under the shadow of renewed conflict. Caring for her 10-year-old daughter, Me'ar told the BBC that in an environment where people cannot even afford basic food, self-care has become a luxury. The conflict, which broke out in late September between the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) and the national army—a resumption of the two-year civil war that officially ended in 2022—has entered a new phase with federal forces marching into Mekelle. However, the silence in the region represents deep trauma and economic ruin rather than peace.

The TPLF's move, which they termed a "strategic withdrawal," allowed the federal army to enter the city with almost no resistance. Government officials argue that the war is effectively over and that the only remaining task is to clear the region of TPLF elements. Yet, the reality on the ground is far from this optimistic narrative. While reports indicate that hundreds of civilians have died due to drone strikes and air force bombings, a sense of fear and uncertainty prevails among the local population.

Background of the Development

The Tigray region of Ethiopia has been under the political and military control of the TPLF for decades. The civil war that began in 2020 and officially ended in 2022 left deep scars on the country's social fabric. During this period, thousands were displaced, the risk of famine emerged, and basic infrastructure services completely collapsed. Although the 2022 peace agreement provided a brief respite, the trust deficit between the parties was never fully resolved.

The renewed fighting in September proved just how fragile that peace was. The TPLF's desire to maintain its dominance in the region and the central government's efforts to re-establish its authority turned the region back into a battlefield. While the federal army's entry into Mekelle is presented as a military victory, it is historically known that such "victories" often deepen ethnic and political tensions in the region.

The chronology of the conflict in the region is a history not only of military action but also of a humanitarian crisis. The disruption of electricity, internet, and banking services has isolated the region from the outside world. Despite official statements that the fighting has stopped, local residents are afraid to leave their homes and are unable to make any plans for the future.

Expert and Industry Insights

Experts and industry representatives closely monitoring the region describe Ethiopia's current situation as "unsustainable instability." Economic analysts warn that the standstill in commercial activities in the region will negatively affect not only Tigray but the entire Ethiopian economy.

• Political analysts suggest that the TPLF's withdrawal may not be a surrender but a preparation for a long-term guerrilla war.
• Economists emphasize that the collapse of the banking system in the region has completely wiped out the capital of local small businesses.
• Human rights observers state that the increase in civilian casualties from air strikes has completely destroyed trust between the local population and the central government.
• Agricultural experts point out that the conflict coinciding with the harvest season has triggered a serious risk of food crisis in the region.
• Security experts predict that maintaining control over the region is a high-cost operation for the federal army, which will strain the state budget.

Experts argue that the government's narrative that "the war is over" does not align with the realities on the ground and that true peace is only possible through inclusive political dialogue. Otherwise, the region is likely to turn into a "frozen conflict" zone.

Economic and Social Implications

The economic collapse in Tigray is not just a regional problem but a harbinger of a humanitarian catastrophe. As Firut Me'ar noted, people's priority is not beauty or trade, but finding their next meal. The closure of businesses, the breakdown of supply chains, and the halt in cash flow have pushed poverty rates in the region to record levels.

From a social psychology perspective, it is evident that public morale has completely collapsed. Years of war, migration, and hunger have weakened the society's belief in the future. While the tendency of the young population to leave the region is increasing, those who remain are struggling with anxiety disorders brought on by uncertainty.

In terms of market balance, the prices of goods and services in the region have soared to exorbitant levels. Access to basic necessities has become dependent on the black market and aid. This situation demonstrates how challenging the central government's economic rehabilitation plans for the region will be.

Future Projections and Outlook

In the coming period, how the Ethiopian government will re-establish the administrative structure in the region is of critical importance. The claim of completely clearing out TPLF elements could lead to a new wave of security operations in the region. This situation may cause the international community to increase pressure on Ethiopia.

Expectations are for the government to allow humanitarian aid into the region and restore basic services. However, due to security concerns, this process is moving very slowly. Risks include the potential for renewed fighting or the region being placed under a long-term blockade.

In conclusion, the situation in Tigray can be defined as neither a full-scale war nor a complete peace. The region stands as a "buffer zone" that will determine the future of Ethiopia. The steps taken in the coming months will show whether the country can maintain its unity or if it is heading toward a deeper fragmentation.